Star Wars changed everything for the movie industry. It opened the door for a plethora of new opporitunities in Hollywood. In our previous post, we interviewed T.J. Prendergast, a film industry expert who worked as a manager of a movie theater for 8 years. Today, we will interview professional box office analyist Doug Stone, who is the president of the site Box Office Analyst. Stone will provide a different perspective on a similar set of questions from the last interview with Prendergast.
Beyond the Film: What do you think made Star Wars so successful?
Stone: There were a number of things that made Star Wars successful. First and foremost, it was hugely entertaining, and it came at the right time. The country was moving out of the aftereffects of the Vietnam War and the public was ready to forsake introspection and healing for entertainment. Lucas was able to weave together memes from numerous genres into a classic tale of the underdog rising up against the oppressor. What made it all the more impressive was the masterful use and detail in the special effects. Basically it was a film that caught the right chord at the right time with a well crafted entertainment.
Beyond the Film: I can’t argue with you there.
Beyond the Film: Do you think Star Wars changed how audiences consumed movies?
Stone: I do think Star Wars affected how the public consumed movies, at least for a while. Whenever Hollywood hits on a theme it is copied over and over. Science Fiction had been a B movie genre forever and Star Wars moved it into the mainstream. It paved the way for films like Close Encounters, Raiders of the Lost Ark, and to no small extent the plethora of superhero films we see today. It broke barriers and made it possible for filmmakers to find a new outlet to bring themes to the screen. It opened the industry up to entertainment again after a near decade of angst driven film.
Beyond the Film: Did Star Wars create a new age of the blockbuster? If possible, relate this question to how you approach your business in any way you can.
Stone: Star Wars was not the first “blockbuster” but it set a new standard. One should bear in mind that if Star Wars were assessed in current dollars it would far surpass the biggest grossing film of all time. In a sense, it was THE blockbuster. there will probably never be another film that reaches that level of attendance as delivery of entertainment has changed vastly in the interim. When you look at Guardians of the Galaxy, which by the way was also enormously entertaining, the 330 or so million it will gross is roughly one fourth of Star Wars in attendance. Titanic which came along about 2 decades later and did some 658 Million scored roughly half the attendance of Star Wars as did Avatar in 2009. So did it create a new age of the blockbuster. Not in the sense of what is a blockbuster now. Bear in mind that Guardians of the Galaxy which would be classified a blockbuster now at an average ticket price of 8.25 brought in about 39 Million in attendance. Turner and Hooch in 1989 which did about 71 Million at an average ticket price of 17.75 Million in attendance. It was by no means thought of as a blockbuster.Think about it, Star Wars grossed 307 Million in it’s initial run at an average ticket price of 2.20, almost 140 Million in attendance.
With modern block busters such as Guardians of the Galaxy paling in comparison to goliaths such as Star Wars, do you think the box office contracted since then? If so, why?
Box Office totals have not contracted. For reference I point you to the site www.natoonline.org It has stats on average ticket pricing, box office totals and admissions. However as the number of people in the US has steadily risen, per captia attendance has declined to roughly 4 movie visits per person from 5 in 2002 when it peaked at least in terms of total admissions. Compare the US census data with these numbers.
The reasons that there has been a decline in per capita (per person) visits are several. First demographics have changed significantly, especially since 2002 when the percentage of 10 – 20 year old members of the population hit a 15 year peak. This is do to the population cycle started in WW2 and the baby boom that occurred upon the end and the return of the armed forces to US soil. The early 2000 peak is an echo of that baby boom, meaning that this is when the offspring of baby boomers were in their teens. That is the cohort of the population with the greatest propensity to visit theaters often.
Other reasons of course are the continued expansion of alternative outlets for entertainment. DVD culled some, streaming video culls some, the internet culls some…but all in all the attendance has remained relatively stable in total but declining on a per capita basis.
Beyond the Film: What do you think the upcoming Star Wars will do for the movie industry, if it does anything at all? Relate this question to how you approach your business if possible.
Stone: The upcoming Star Wars, if it is good and we currently have no reason to doubt it will likely tally something between 250 and 350 Million. The story was complete with the six films already done. If it is good as with any good to great film it will do well, but it likely will not be the top film for 2015. That may well go to either the Avengers: Age of Ultron, or Hunger Games Mockingjay 2. There is no doubt that Star Wars in the hands of JJ Abrams should be very successful, but it will not come anywhere near the theatrical success seen by the first three episodes (Episode 4, 5,6 actually).
Beyond the Film: Many of the sequels to movies starring superheroes that appeared in Marvel’s The Avengers received what people colloquially refer rot as the “Avengers bump” —since the Star Wars franchise is receiving multiple spinoff films in addition to the main Star Wars episode every couple of years, do you think we will see a similar phenomenon, and why?
Stone: I don’t think that either Thor or Captain America received “the Avengers bump”. Both were good if not great and benefited from higher ticket prices. Captain America 2 was in the view of most, a better film than 1. It is hard to say that given the fact that Captain America 2 was in general, better reviewed and better liked by the public that it received a bump from Avengers. The same holds true for Iron Man. Iron Man 3 was overall better reviewed and better liked. I think the bump isn’t so much an Avengers thing but a Marvel universe thing. The films seem to have upped the game in terms of story, effects, and execution. Witness Guardians, it was widely expected to be not much, maybe half what it ended up doing, but it was brilliant finding a new lighthearted path for Marvel.
I do not see a similar pattern for Star Wars, like the rebooted Star Trek franchise, it should do well. If the story is superb, it will do very well, but this universe is more limiting in its story telling. You are not dealing with superheroes where anything is possible, we are limited to human interaction in a technical universe as opposed to an unlimited fantasy one.
Beyond the Film: Thanks for your time, Mr. Stone.
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